Are pack odds published in mobile card games?

They have to be. Apple's App Store rules and Google Play's policy both require an app that sells randomised items for real money to disclose the odds before purchase. Most games publish them on an odds sheet in the app, sometimes on their website. An app selling packs with no odds anywhere is breaking the rules of the store it is on.

What does a 1-in-200 pack chance actually mean?

It means each open has a one in two hundred chance, independently of every other open. It does not mean you get the card once every two hundred opens, and it does not improve as you go. Over 200 opens at 1-in-200 the chance of getting at least one is about 63%, not 100%, which surprises most people.

Do pack odds get better the more you open?

Only if the game says so. Some games publish a pity system — a guarantee after a stated number of opens — and that is a real, disclosable rule. Without one, odds are the same every time, and a long run of misses does not make the next open more likely. Any game claiming your luck is 'due' is describing a feeling, not a mechanic.

How can I check a game's pack odds before spending?

Look for an odds sheet in the store screen or the pack's purchase screen, and check the app's store listing, where the disclosure is often repeated. Read the wording closely: the chance of getting 'a rare' is not the chance of getting a specific rare, and a stated chance of any item from a group is divided among everything in that group. If you cannot find odds at all, treat that as the answer.

What are the odds in Boxed Up drops?

Each drop shows its own chance as 1-in-N per open on the drop screen, and that is the figure the server uses. It does not change based on how many boxes you or anyone else has opened. If you miss the chase card you still get a card of the tier the box advertises, and the drop has a live counter showing how many copies of the limited card are left.

Packs, explained

How Pack Odds Work in Card Games

Apps that sell random packs for money have to publish the odds. Apple and Google both require it, so if a game sells packs and you cannot find its odds, that itself tells you something.

The number is a chance per open, not a countdown. A 1-in-200 card is 1-in-200 on your first open and on your two hundredth, unless the game says otherwise in writing.

The rule that applies to every app

Both app stores require disclosure. Apple's review guidelines say an app selling randomised items must publish the odds before purchase, and Google Play's policy says the same. That is why every mainstream card game has an odds sheet somewhere, even when it is buried.

It is a floor, not a guarantee of clarity. The rule says the odds must be disclosed; it does not say they must be easy to find or written plainly.

Reading an odds sheet without fooling yourself

What common odds wording means and the mistake each invites
What it says	What it means	The trap
1 in 200 per open	Each open is an independent 1-in-200 chance	It is not a countdown. 200 opens gives you about a 63% chance of at least one, not certainty.
5% chance of a bonus item	5% of opens contain something from that group	Not 5% for the item you want. Split across the group, a specific one can be well under 1%.
Guaranteed rare or better	A floor on the tier, nothing more	The tier is not the card. A common card in a high tier is still common.
Pity after 50 opens	A real guarantee, if it is written down	Check whether it resets, and whether it counts paid opens only.
No odds published	Nothing	On a paid random pack this breaks both stores' rules. Decide accordingly.

Why odds do not warm up

The most common misreading is treating a per-open chance as progress. It isn't. Twenty misses in a row do not improve the twenty-first open, in the same way that five coin tosses landing tails do not make heads more likely next.

What can change it is a stated pity rule: a guarantee after a set number of opens. That is a disclosable mechanic, so if a game has one it will say so, and if it does not say so you should assume there isn't one.

Odds are not the same thing as supply

Two separate numbers decide how hard a card is to get, and mixing them up is what makes a “rare” card disappointing.

Odds are your chance per open. They describe the pack.
Supply is how many copies of that card exist in total. It describes the card.

A card with generous odds and no supply cap can end up in tens of thousands of collections. A card with a fixed run of a few hundred is scarce however the odds read, because once the run is claimed there are no more. That difference is what actually moves prices, which we measured in 668,744 player trades, and it is covered in more detail in what digital cards are worth.

How ours work

A drop chase card. The drop screen shows the chance per open and a live count of how many of the 20 copies are left.

Nike SB Dunk Low Grateful Dead Bears Orange — A drop chase card. The drop screen shows the chance per open and a live count of how many of the 20 copies are left.

Boxed Up, Tuned Up and Filmed Up publish a chance per open on every drop, shown as 1-in-N on the drop screen itself. That figure is the one the server uses, and it does not shift with how much you or anyone else has opened. Miss the chase card and you still get a card of the tier the box advertises.

Each drop also has a fixed supply and a live counter of copies remaining, so you can see the real constraint rather than inferring it. The mechanics are written out on the drops page.

Questions people ask

Are pack odds published in mobile card games?: They have to be. Apple's App Store rules and Google Play's policy both require an app that sells randomised items for real money to disclose the odds before purchase. Most games publish them on an odds sheet in the app, sometimes on their website. An app selling packs with no odds anywhere is breaking the rules of the store it is on.
What does a 1-in-200 pack chance actually mean?: It means each open has a one in two hundred chance, independently of every other open. It does not mean you get the card once every two hundred opens, and it does not improve as you go. Over 200 opens at 1-in-200 the chance of getting at least one is about 63%, not 100%, which surprises most people.
Do pack odds get better the more you open?: Only if the game says so. Some games publish a pity system — a guarantee after a stated number of opens — and that is a real, disclosable rule. Without one, odds are the same every time, and a long run of misses does not make the next open more likely. Any game claiming your luck is 'due' is describing a feeling, not a mechanic.
How can I check a game's pack odds before spending?: Look for an odds sheet in the store screen or the pack's purchase screen, and check the app's store listing, where the disclosure is often repeated. Read the wording closely: the chance of getting 'a rare' is not the chance of getting a specific rare, and a stated chance of any item from a group is divided among everything in that group. If you cannot find odds at all, treat that as the answer.
What are the odds in Boxed Up drops?: Each drop shows its own chance as 1-in-N per open on the drop screen, and that is the figure the server uses. It does not change based on how many boxes you or anyone else has opened. If you miss the chase card you still get a card of the tier the box advertises, and the drop has a live counter showing how many copies of the limited card are left.

What is a card collecting game? — the category, and how it differs from battle games and card scanners.
Are digital trading cards worth anything?
Card collecting games without battles
Digital vs physical trading cards
What to do with duplicate cards